> For the complete documentation index, see [llms.txt](https://foregate.gitbook.io/foregate-docs/llms.txt). Markdown versions of documentation pages are available by appending `.md` to page URLs; this page is available as [Markdown](https://foregate.gitbook.io/foregate-docs/products-and-features/price-predictions.md).

# Price Predictions

## **How To Trade**

Predict the price direction of the selected cryptocurrency for the current round. Choose<mark style="color:$success;">**「(UP)」**</mark>or<mark style="color:$primary;">**「(DOWN)」**</mark>, enter your prediction amount, and confirm to join the round.

Each round lasts 5 minutes and consists of two phases:

* **Live (first 4 minutes):** Participants can choose a direction and submit predictions.
* **Lock period (final 1 minute):** New predictions are not accepted. After the round ends, the system compares the **settlement price** with the **lock price** to determine the result. The settlement price becomes the initial lock price for the next round.

## 1. **How It Works**

1. **Choose a market:** Select an asset to predict — currently available pairs include **BTC/USDT** and **ETH/USDT**.
2. **Choose a direction:** Decide whether the price will go **rise&#x20;**<mark style="color:$success;">**「(UP)」**</mark> or **fall** <mark style="color:$primary;">**「(DOWN)」**</mark>when the round ends. Each round lasts **five minutes** and progresses through **Live → Locked → Settled**.
3. **Set your prediction amount:** Enter the amount of **USDT** you want to place on.
4. **Confirm your prediction:** Once your position is placed, it cannot be changed for that round.
5. **Check the results**

* If you choose <mark style="color:$success;">**`UP`**</mark> ,  win when the **Settled Price > Locked Price**.
* If you choose  <mark style="color:$primary;">**`DOWN`**</mark>.,  win when the **Settled Price < Locked Price**.

***

## **2. Mechanics And Fees**

This Price Prediction market uses a a **Pari-mutuel mode**. All prediction amounts are combined into a single prize pool for the round.

* Predictions for <mark style="color:$success;">**「(UP)」**</mark> and <mark style="color:$primary;">**「(DOWN)」**</mark> form the total prize pool.
* The estimated return updates in real time based on each side’s share. It is not final. The estimated return  updates in real time when you placed is not the final payout. **Actual payouts** are calculated using the prize pool distribution **at the time the round locks**.

**The round payout is calculated from each pool’s funding ratio:**

* Total Prize Pool = Total <mark style="color:$success;">**「(UP)」**</mark>Predictions Amount + Total <mark style="color:$primary;">**「(DOWN)」**</mark>Predictions Amount&#x20;
* The platform charges a 10% service fee from the total prize pool.
* The remaining 90% is distributed proportionally among participants who predicted the correct direction.&#x20;
* **Payout** **formula:** **(individual prediction amount / total amount on the winning side) × total prize pool × 90%**
* **Prize distribution:** The system automatically distributes prizes to winning accounts 3–5 minutes after settlement.
* **Supported chain and token:** Solana / USDT
* **Round duration:** Five minutes per rolling round.

***

## **3.** Settlement Results & Refund Policy

**A)** After the round ends, the system compares the **Settled Price** with the **Lock Price** using 3-decimal precision to determine the outcome.

* Settled Price > Lock price →   <mark style="color:$success;">**`UP`**</mark>**&#x20;wins**
* Settled Price < Lock price → <mark style="color:$primary;">**`DOWN`**</mark>**&#x20;wins**
* Settled Price = Lock price → **No price change**. Refund rules apply.
* **One-Sided Predictions occur** when all predictions choose **one direction**. No counterparty exists.<br>

**B) Refund rules**

All participants receive a **full refund with no service fee** in either case:

* **No Price Change (lock price = settled price):** The Lock Price and Settled Price are identical to 3 decimal places，the round is considered <mark style="color:purple;">**void**</mark> (**DRAW**), and no winning side is determined.
  * No participant is declared the winner.The round is considered a **No Price Change** outcome.
  * All prediction amounts placed on both<mark style="color:$success;">**「(UP)」**</mark>and<mark style="color:$primary;">**「(DOWN)」**</mark>will be **fully refunded**.
  * **Example:** If the lock price is **`100,000`** and the settled price is also **`100,000`**, regardless of whether you selected  <mark style="color:$success;">**`UP`**</mark> or  <mark style="color:$primary;">**`DOWN`**</mark> , the round is <mark style="color:purple;">**void**</mark> and all stakes will be refunded in full.
* **One-sided predictions:** If **all predictions are placed on the same direction**, with **no opposing counterparty**:
  * Only one side contains all prediction amounts.And the other side has **zero participation or** has a prediction amount of `0`.
  * **If you win:** The system returns **your original prediction amount only**. **No additional payout or profit** will be awarded, as there was no counterparty to match your prediction.
  * **If you lose:** Your **entire prediction amount of this round will still be refunded**.
    * **Example:** You predict `50 USDT` on <mark style="color:$success;">**`UP`**</mark>. Nobody predicts <mark style="color:$primary;">**`DOWN`**</mark>. The result is  <mark style="color:$success;">**`UP`**</mark> .You receive `50 USDT`.
    * **Example:** You predict `50 USDT` on <mark style="color:$success;">**`UP`**</mark>. Nobody predicts <mark style="color:$primary;">**`DOWN`**</mark>. The result is <mark style="color:$primary;">**`DOWN`**</mark>. You receive a `50 USDT` refund.

***

### FAQ – Everything You Might Want to Know

<details>

<summary><strong>Q1：Are there any fees associated with the Price Prediction markets?</strong></summary>

❖ The platform charges a 10% service fee from the total prize pool.

</details>

<details>

<summary><strong>Q2：Is there a time limit for winners to claim their winnings?</strong></summary>

❖ The winnings will be distributed automatically to winners' account within 3\~5 minute when the round is settled and calculated.

</details>

<details>

<summary><strong>Q3：How can I calculate the payout?</strong></summary>

❖ **Payout** **formula:** **(individual prediction amount / total amount on the winning side) × total prize pool × 90%**

</details>

<details>

<summary><strong>Q4：What is Locked Price &#x26; Settled Price?</strong></summary>

❖ **Locked Price:** The initial price at the beginning of the LIVE phase.\
❖ **Settled Price:** The final price at the end of the round, used to identify the winners.

<sup><sub>Notes: The Oracle price may take up to 20 seconds to update.<sub></sup>

</details>

<details>

<summary><strong>Q5：Can I change or remove my position?</strong></summary>

❖ No, once your position is confirmed, you cannot change its direction. Make sure you're completely satisfied with your chosen direction before confirming.

</details>

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<summary><strong>Q6：Can I place orders on both sides in one round?</strong></summary>

❖ Yes. Besides the current position, you can check the payout on the real-time market and place the opposite direction order.

</details>

<details>

<summary><strong>Q7：What will happen if Settled Price = Locked Price</strong></summary>

❖ All stakes from both sides will be fully refunded., the round is considered <mark style="color:purple;">**void**</mark> (**DRAW**), and no winning side is determined.No profit or loss will be generated.

</details>

<details>

<summary><strong>Q8：What will happen if nobody is on the other side of your orders?</strong></summary>

❖ no additional profit will be generated. In this case, The system will fully refund the original stake amount.

* If you **WIN**: If the pool contains only one-sided participation with no opposing liquidity, no additional profit will be generated. In this case, only the original stake amount will be fully refunded.
* If you **LOSE**: If the pool contains only one-sided participation with no opposing liquidity, no actual loss will occur. The system will fully refund the original stake amount.

</details>

<details>

<summary><strong>Q9：Where does the price information in the Price Prediction market come from?</strong></summary>

❖ All the price information in the Price Prediction market comes from ChainLink oracle. Prices from other websites will not be considered.

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