> For the complete documentation index, see [llms.txt](https://foregate.gitbook.io/foregate-docs/llms.txt). Markdown versions of documentation pages are available by appending `.md` to page URLs; this page is available as [Markdown](https://foregate.gitbook.io/foregate-docs/crypto-products-and-features/price-predictions.md).

# Price Predictions

✨A live  Crypto's price chart will be Up (higher) or Down (lower) than the entry price by the time the timer hits zero and a strict time limit ( 1-minute rolling window)

## **3.1 &#x20;**<mark style="color:$success;">**`UP`**</mark> **/** <mark style="color:$primary;">**`DOWN`**</mark>**&#x20;Prediction Interval**

**Binary prediction markets** like **ForeGate** act as gamified **derivatives**. This involves predicting whether the price of a specific **token** will be above or below a certain value within a specified <mark style="color:orange;">**time period**</mark> <mark style="color:blue;">**(e.g., 1 minutes)**</mark>. It requires analyzing **market trends**, **technical indicators**, and **news events** that may impact the token's price.

A live **binary forecasting** or **up/down prediction interval** on the ForeGate **Web3 platform**, where participants speculate whether an **asset's price** will rise or fall within a **short window**.\
\
Utilizing the **Core Infrastructure** (**Chainlink Oracles**). ForeGate utilizes decentralized **Chainlink Data Feeds** to fetch **high-frequency, tamper-proof pricing**.

***

## **3.2** � Understanding the Price Predict Mechanics

<div data-with-frame="true"><figure><img src="https://355980674-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-x-prod.appspot.com/o/spaces%2FOrLKzpFFRJQb0bTtbOyi%2Fuploads%2FYCtHs38ZJ7pkY1xI1U5Z%2Fimage.png?alt=media&amp;token=5171d959-89ff-404e-af30-72a5ea44191b" alt="" width="375"><figcaption></figcaption></figure></div>

Binary prediction markets like ForeGate act as gamified derivatives. Instead of buying Bitcoin, you are wagering on a short-term directional outcome.

ForeGate operates as a **binary decentralized prediction market**, where users wager on whether the final price of an asset at the end of a round will be **higher (Up/Bull)** or **lower (Down/Bear)** than a fixed lock-in baseline.

***

#### **3.2.1** Analyzing the Captured Round

Based on the interface snapshot, here is exactly how a prediction plays out using the live data on screen:

* **Target Asset:** **BTC/USDT**
* **Round Window:** **`2026/09/14`**  **`01:21` – `01:23`** (A standard 2-minute prediction round).
* **Locked Price (P**<sub>**lock**</sub>**):**  **`$77,300.49`** — This is the benchmark price fixed at the exact start of the round (01:21). All positions are evaluated against this number.
* **Current Live Price (P**<sub>**current**</sub>**):** **`$77,303.77`** — The real-time valuation fetched via decentralized oracles like [Chainlink](https://chainlink.com/).
* **Remaining Time:** **00:58** seconds left before the round permanently settles.

***

#### &#x20;**3.2.2** How Settlement and Payouts Work

When the countdown timer hits `00:00` , the platform records the final **Settlement Price** (P<sub>settle</sub>).

<table><thead><tr><th width="147.640625">Condition</th><th width="132.33984375">Winning Outcome</th><th>Practical Scenario (Based on Image)</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td><strong>P</strong><sub><strong>settle</strong></sub><strong> > </strong><mark style="color:orange;"><strong>$77,300.49</strong></mark></td><td><sub>🟢 <strong>UP (Bull)</strong></sub></td><td><sub><em>The live price is currently</em><em> </em><em><strong>$77,303.77</strong></em><em>. If it holds above the Locked Price by even a fraction of a cent, everyone who predicted</em><em> </em><em><strong>UP</strong></em><em> </em><em>wins the round.</em></sub></td></tr><tr><td><strong>P</strong><sub><strong>settle</strong></sub><strong> &#x3C; </strong><mark style="color:orange;"><strong>$77,300.49</strong></mark></td><td><sub>🔴 <strong>DOWN (Bear)</strong></sub></td><td><sub><em>If the price dips back down below the locked baseline in the final 58 seconds, everyone who predicted</em><em> </em><em><strong>DOWN</strong></em><em> </em><em>wins.</em></sub></td></tr></tbody></table>

* **Locked Price vs. Current Price:**&#x20;
  * The game sets a "Locked Price" right when the round starts. When the countdown hits `00:00`, the final price ("Settled Price") is compared to that Locked Price.
* **The Payout Metric:**&#x20;
  * At the bottom, you can see pool sentiments (**49.6% UP** vs. **50.4% DOWN**). Because this functions as a pari-mutuel betting pool, betting on the minority side pays out a higher multiplier if you win, while betting with the majority yields a safer but lower multiplier.
* **Streak Indicator:**&#x20;
  * The system tracks consecutive wins (**6 Streak**). Maintaining a streak often yields additional layer rewards (like platform-specific L1 engagement points).

***

## **3.3** <img src="https://355980674-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-x-prod.appspot.com/o/spaces%2FOrLKzpFFRJQb0bTtbOyi%2Fuploads%2FLDcpBTRPsM5BEHHO2Md7%2Fimage.png?alt=media&amp;token=1ae970ae-e452-48da-ab1d-ec8d44d3f678" alt="" data-size="line">**AI Assistant Function**&#x20;

[**The AI assistant** ](https://x.com/CyreneAI/status/2096187837045674437)functions as a **predictive forecasting engine**. Its job is to provide market analysis to participants by calculating short-term directional trends for cryptocurrency prices.

Specifically, the AI executes two primary functions on this screen:

<div data-with-frame="true"><figure><img src="https://355980674-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-x-prod.appspot.com/o/spaces%2FOrLKzpFFRJQb0bTtbOyi%2Fuploads%2FkyReYLRpxVXXgcMPVlge%2Fimage.png?alt=media&amp;token=8da9ee85-21e1-4d6a-9615-6d968aacb3b9" alt="" width="271"><figcaption></figcaption></figure></div>

#### **3.3.2** 🔎 Directional Lean (Trend Forecasting)

The model continuously evaluates micro-market variables. These include recent technical chart momentum, order-book changes, and instantaneous pool volumes. By processing these indicators, it estimates the most probable price outcome (**"Model lean: Down"**), calculating a calculated expectation (such as the **51%** shown here).&#x20;

📊 Confidence Metrics

The system evaluates the data clarity and algorithm alignment to assign a technical score (**"Confidence 68"**). This score tells the user how strong or stable the underlying data signals are.

* **High Scores:** Strong data patterns and convergence across technical chart indicators.
* **Low/Moderate Scores:** High market noise, conflicting signals, or high-frequency volatility where the price could easily swing either way.

⚠️ **Important Reminder:** As noted in the user interface disclaimer, this AI output is strictly a **pre-match probability estimate** meant for statistical reference. It is not formal trading advice.

***

## **3.4** How to Participate in  <mark style="color:$success;">**`UP`**</mark> **/** <mark style="color:$primary;">**`DOWN`**</mark> Directional Forecasts

Predict the price direction of the selected cryptocurrency for the current round. Choose<mark style="color:$success;">**「(UP)」**</mark>or<mark style="color:$primary;">**「(DOWN)」**</mark>, enter your prediction amount, and confirm to join the round.

Each round lasts 2 minutes and consists of 3 phases:

Each 2-minute round includes a 1-minute Lock-In Period. At the end of the Prediction Period, the system captures the current market price as the **Locked Price** and closes the prediction window. When the round ends, the system captures the **Settled Price** and compares it with the Locked Price to complete the settlement.

{% stepper %}
{% step %}

### <sup>Phase 1: Live</sup> <sup>**Prediction Window ( Minute 0–1)**</sup>

Users may submit preferred predictions during this period.
{% endstep %}

{% step %}

### <sup>Phase 2:</sup> <sup>**Locked Period (Minute 1–2)**</sup>

* At the end of Minute 1, the system captures the current market price as the **Locked Price** for the round.
* At the same time, the prediction window closes, and no further new predictions will be accepted.
* Users then enter the waiting period until settlement.
  {% endstep %}

{% step %}

### <sup>Phase 3:</sup> <sup>**Settlement**</sup> <sup>**(End of Minute 2)**</sup>

* At the end of Minute 2, the system captures the current market price as the **Settled Price**.
* The settled price is compared with the locked price, and profit/loss settlement is completed based on the comparison result.
* Once settlement is complete, the final outcome is displayed to the user.
  {% endstep %}
  {% endstepper %}

***

#### <sup>**A]**</sup> **How It Works**

1. **Choose a market:** Select an asset to predict — currently available pairs include **BTC/USDT** and **ETH/USDT**.
2. **Choose a direction:** Decide whether the price will go **rise&#x20;**<mark style="color:$success;">**「(UP)」**</mark> or **fall** <mark style="color:$primary;">**「(DOWN)」**</mark>when the round ends. Each round lasts **Two minutes** and progresses through **Live → Locked → Settled**.
3. **Set your prediction amount:** Enter the amount of **USDT** you want to place on.
4. **Confirm your prediction:** Once your position is placed, it cannot be changed for that round.
5. **Check the results**

* If you choose <mark style="color:$success;">**`UP`**</mark> , win when the **Settled Price > Locked Price**.
* If you choose <mark style="color:$primary;">**`DOWN`**</mark>, win when the **Settled Price < Locked Price**.

***

#### <sup>**B]**</sup> **Mechanics And Fees**

This Price Prediction market uses a a **Pari-mutuel mode**. All prediction amounts are combined into a single prize pool for the round.The essence of this mechanism is that the losers' funds are wiped out, and the winners split the pool proportionally.

* Predictions for <mark style="color:$success;">**「(UP)」**</mark> and <mark style="color:$primary;">**「(DOWN)」**</mark> form the total prize pool.
* The estimated return updates in real time based on each side’s share. It is not final. The estimated return updates in real time when you placed is not the final payout. **Actual payouts** are calculated using the prize pool distribution **at the time the round locks**.

**The round payout is calculated from each pool’s funding ratio:**

* Total Prize Pool = Total <mark style="color:$success;">**「(UP)」**</mark>Predictions Amount + Total <mark style="color:$primary;">**「(DOWN)」**</mark>Predictions Amount
* The platform charges a 10% service fee from **the Loser Pool.**
* The remaining 90% is distributed proportionally among participants who predicted the correct direction.
* **Payout** **formula:** **(individual prediction amount / total amount on the winning side) × Loser Pool × 90%**
* **Prize distribution:** The system automatically distributes prizes to winning accounts 3–5 minutes after settlement.
* **Supported chain and token:** Solana / USDT
* **Round duration:** Two minutes per rolling round.

***

#### <sup>**C]**</sup>**&#x20;Settlement Results & Refund Policy**

**1)** After the round ends, the system compares the **Settled Price** with the **Lock Price** using 3-decimal precision to determine the outcome.

* Settled Price > Lock price → <mark style="color:$success;">**`UP`**</mark>**&#x20;wins**
* Settled Price < Lock price → <mark style="color:$primary;">**`DOWN`**</mark>**&#x20;wins**
* Settled Price = Lock price → **No price change**. Refund rules apply.
* **One-Sided Predictions occur** when all predictions choose **one direction**. No counterparty exists.<br>

**2) Refund rules**

All participants receive a **full refund with no service fee** in either case:

* **No Price Change (lock price = settled price):** The Lock Price and Settled Price are identical to 3 decimal places，the round is considered <mark style="color:purple;">**void**</mark> (**DRAW**), and no winning side is determined.
  * No participant is declared the winner.The round is considered a **No Price Change** outcome.
  * All prediction amounts placed on both<mark style="color:$success;">**「(UP)」**</mark>and<mark style="color:$primary;">**「(DOWN)」**</mark>will be **fully refunded**.
  * **Example:** If the lock price is **`100,000`** and the settled price is also **`100,000`**, regardless of whether you selected <mark style="color:$success;">**`UP`**</mark> or <mark style="color:$primary;">**`DOWN`**</mark> , the round is <mark style="color:purple;">**void**</mark> and all stakes will be refunded in full.
* **One-sided predictions:** If **all predictions are placed on the same direction**, with **no opposing counterparty**:

  * Only one side contains all prediction amounts.And the other side has **zero participation or** has a prediction amount of `0`.
  * **If you win:** The system returns **your original prediction amount only**. **No additional payout or profit** will be awarded, as there was no counterparty to match your prediction.
  * **If you lose:** Your **entire prediction amount of this round will still be refunded**.
    * **Example:** You predict `50 USDT` on <mark style="color:$success;">**`UP`**</mark>. Nobody predicts <mark style="color:$primary;">**`DOWN`**</mark>. The result is <mark style="color:$success;">**`UP`**</mark> .You receive `50 USDT`.
    * **Example:** You predict `50 USDT` on <mark style="color:$success;">**`UP`**</mark>. Nobody predicts <mark style="color:$primary;">**`DOWN`**</mark>. The result is <mark style="color:$primary;">**`DOWN`**</mark>. You receive a `50 USDT` refund.

***

### FAQ – Everything You Might Want to Know

<details>

<summary><strong>Q1：Are there any fees associated with the Price Prediction markets?</strong></summary>

❖ The platform charges a 10% service fee from the **Loser Pool.**

</details>

<details>

<summary><strong>Q2：Is there a time limit for winners to claim their winnings?</strong></summary>

❖ The winnings will be distributed automatically to winners' account within 3\~5 minute when the round is settled and calculated.

</details>

<details>

<summary><strong>Q3：How can I calculate the payout?</strong></summary>

❖ **Payout** **formula:** **(individual prediction amount / total amount on the winning side) × Total prize pool × 90%**

</details>

<details>

<summary><strong>Q4：What is Locked Price &#x26; Settled Price?</strong></summary>

❖ **Locked Price:** The initial price when entering the **Locked** phase, captured at the end of the first minute (the lock time).\
❖ **結算價格（Settled Price）**：回合結束時計算勝負所依據的最終價格。\
\
\
❖ **Settled Price:** The final price at the end of the round, used to identify the winners.

<sup><sub>Notes: The Oracle price may take up to 20 seconds to update.<sub></sup>

</details>

<details>

<summary><strong>Q5：Can I change or remove my position?</strong></summary>

❖ No, once your position is confirmed, you cannot change its direction. Make sure you're completely satisfied with your chosen direction before confirming.

</details>

<details>

<summary><strong>Q6：Can I place orders on both sides in one round?</strong></summary>

❖ Yes. Besides the current position, you can check the payout on the real-time market and place the opposite direction order.

</details>

<details>

<summary><strong>Q7：What will happen if Settled Price = Locked Price</strong></summary>

❖ All stakes from both sides will be fully refunded., the round is considered <mark style="color:purple;">**void**</mark> (**DRAW**), and no winning side is determined.No profit or loss will be generated.

</details>

<details>

<summary><strong>Q8：What will happen if nobody is on the other side of your orders?</strong></summary>

❖ no additional profit will be generated. In this case, The system will fully refund the original stake amount.

* If you **WIN**: If the pool contains only one-sided participation with no opposing liquidity, no additional profit will be generated. In this case, only the original stake amount will be fully refunded.
* If you **LOSE**: If the pool contains only one-sided participation with no opposing liquidity, no actual loss will occur. The system will fully refund the original stake amount.

</details>

<details>

<summary><strong>Q9：Where does the price information in the Price Prediction market come from?</strong></summary>

❖ All the price information in the Price Prediction market comes from ChainLink oracle. Prices from other websites will not be considered.

</details>

***

<h2 align="center">✨ Start predicting</h2>

<p align="center"><sup>Explore the markets you follow. Trade on the outcomes you believe in.</sup></p>

<p align="center"><sup>Put your knowledge into practice. Sign up — no KYC required.</sup></p>

<p align="center"><img src="https://355980674-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-x-prod.appspot.com/o/spaces%2FOrLKzpFFRJQb0bTtbOyi%2Fuploads%2FJFqZFF2G3LXxmt1j9SfB%2Fimage.png?alt=media&amp;token=fea744ad-e5d5-41a3-9b7b-d37c0a89a4d4" alt="" data-size="line"><a href="https://www.foregate.com" class="button primary" data-icon="arrow-turn-up">Sign Up for ForeGate Market</a><br><br></p>

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<p align="center"><strong>🎯 Explore markets</strong></p>

<p align="center"><sup><sub>Predict the results of your favorite markets on ForeGate</sub></sup></p>

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#### <img src="https://355980674-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-x-prod.appspot.com/o/spaces%2FOrLKzpFFRJQb0bTtbOyi%2Fuploads%2FHaKmnSszXseNwVrqfDsc%2Fimage.png?alt=media&amp;token=bc08565f-2fd8-41e3-bfd5-a363b463fa86" alt="" data-size="line">  **Follow High - Performance Strategies By**&#x20;

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### &#x20;<img src="https://355980674-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-x-prod.appspot.com/o/spaces%2FOrLKzpFFRJQb0bTtbOyi%2Fuploads%2FsMgdNgthKMd02pdzOOKF%2Fimage.png?alt=media&amp;token=73130fbe-411a-488f-80c3-c85f0dbc9966" alt="" data-size="line">Review: 4.5 ⭐️️️⭐️️️⭐️️️⭐️️️⭐️️

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***